Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump Election Polls

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The 2016 United States presidential election was a highly contentious and closely watched race between Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party nominee, and Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee. Polling data played a crucial role throughout the election, serving as a gauge for the candidates’ popularity and public sentiment. In this blog post, we will delve into the details of the election polls, their significance, and the eventual outcome of the election.


Before we explore the election polls, it is important to understand the background of the candidates and the political climate during the 2016 election season. Hillary Clinton, a former Secretary of State and First Lady, aimed to become the first female President of the United States. On the other hand, Donald Trump, a businessman and reality TV star, sought to leverage his outsider status and populist appeal to win the presidency.

The 2016 election was marked by deep political polarization, with Clinton representing the established political elite and Trump positioning himself as a disruptor of the status quo. The campaigns were characterized by heated debates on immigration, trade, healthcare, and various other policy issues. As the election approached, both candidates faced numerous controversies and scandals, further fueling public interest in the outcome and the role of election polls.

Early Election Polls

Election polls began early in the 2016 campaign, aiming to capture the initial preference of voters. These early polls provided a snapshot of public opinion and served as tools for candidates to gauge their performance and adjust their strategies accordingly.

During the early stages, polls consistently showed a tight race between Clinton and Trump. Their varying positions on key issues and the strong polarization of the electorate contributed to the closely contested nature of the race. In addition to the national polls, state-level polls played a crucial role in predicting the outcome of the election, as the U.S. presidential race is determined by the Electoral College rather than the popular vote.

Final Polls and Predictions

As the election approached, polling organizations intensified their efforts to capture the evolving public sentiment. The final polls, conducted just before the election day, were highly anticipated, often shaping media narratives and public expectations.

However, the accuracy of election polls came into question as there were significant discrepancies between the final polling data and the eventual results. Many polls showed Clinton with a slight lead over Trump, leading to predictions of a Clinton victory. However, Trump ultimately won the Electoral College, securing his path to the presidency, while losing the popular vote by a small margin.

One major factor contributing to the disparity between the polls and the outcome was the presence of so-called “shy Trump” voters – individuals who supported Trump but were reluctant to express their preference to pollsters. These voters, combined with the unique dynamics of the Electoral College system, resulted in the discrepancies observed in the polling data.

Outcome of the Election

The outcome of the 2016 election was a surprise to many, defying the predictions and expectations set by the polls. Donald Trump secured 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227, clinching victory and becoming the 45th President of the United States.

Despite losing the Electoral College, Clinton won the popular vote, receiving approximately 2.9 million more votes than Trump. This outcome sparked debates about the effectiveness of the electoral system and led to calls for its reform.


The 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump demonstrated the important role of election polls in shaping public perceptions and driving campaign strategies. However, it also highlighted the limitations of polling data and the challenges in accurately predicting election outcomes. The discrepancies between the polls and the eventual results serve as a reminder that elections are dynamic processes influenced by various factors, and polling should be approached with caution.

As we look back on this historic election, it is clear that polling data played a vital role in shaping public opinion and candidate strategies. Despite their limitations, election polls provide valuable insights into the preferences and attitudes of the electorate. However, their accuracy should always be considered within the larger context of the electoral system and the dynamics of the race.

To gain a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding polling methods and their impact on election outcomes, you can refer to this informative article by the Pew Research Center.

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